COS: Weather In Israel

After checking out the weather, check out Bert's new book, Jesus Unplugged.

[Updated September 30, 2005, the first time since December 4, 2000. All links now work.]
How's the weather in Jerusalem and around Israel?
Just scroll down and check some of these sites to see for yourself!

To jump on the "Soap Box" with me, scroll to the bottom . . .

Israel Weather	CNN Jerusalem, Israel, with links to other cities in Israel and the Middle East	Intellicast *Jerusalem 10-day forecast: The stupidest thing I've ever seen.*
Weather Underground 5 cities in Israel	USA Today Weather in 31 sites in Israel	YAHOO! 32 sites
The Jerusalem Post Today's Temps at 7 locations	National Weather Service Israel	Travelocity 6 locations in Israel
WeatherPost Conditions and 4-day forecast for 19 cities in the Middle East	Israel Meteorological Service	Israel Weather Forcast From Greenwich Mean Time
The Weather Channel 32 locations in Israel	The Weather Network Jerusalem 5-day Forecast	Jerusalem Weather Station You will be glad you went here. Cool site.
Table of average temperatures in major cities in Israel Jerusalem and Tel Aviv 5-day forecast and current conditions	myTELUS 6 cities forcasted	TuTiempo

Soap Box:

When you check the forecasts above, you will immediately notice that they do not agree, sometimes dramatically. There is nothing I can do about that, of course. You might be interested to know that when I'm in Jerusalem, and I click on the above forecasts, I'm impressed with how wrong they are! So I wonder . . .

QUESTION: Forecasters only give us a computer generated percentage chance that it might rain today or tomorrow, right? Wouldn't it be much more helpful and honest to also share the chance (probability) that their predictions will turn out to be right? Why don't they do that?

MY SELF-RIGHTEOUS ANSWER: They do not want us to have proof of what we already suspect, that forecasting is not as accurate a science as we are led to believe. The unfortunate truth it seems to me is that weather announcers/web sites sell uncertain forecasts with as much certainty as they can muster.

A guy on the Weather Channel claims that 24-hour forecasts today are 90% accurate. I don't know if that includes temperature and precipitation or what. He didn't say. Neither did he say how this number was calculated or what margin of error was used.

A local Jackson, Mississippi forecaster claims his forecasts are 95% accurate (David Hartman). Surely he doesn't mean his 5-day forecast is 95% accurate!? Can any meteorologist deny that reliability decreases significantly as they attempt to forecast 2, 3, and 4 days into the future?

Therefore, the forecasters do not disclose daily forecast accuracy because people might lose faith in forecasting. TV ratings might fall. Sponsors might leave. People could lose money or lose their jobs. You get the picture.

P.S. If you are in junior high, and you need a science project idea, why not record a forecaster's Sunday predictions for a given week. Then chart what the weather actually was for that week. Determine percentage forecast accuracy 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 days into the future. If forecasters won't disclose the stats, a student could do it for them!

Thank you for joining me on the Soap Box!